UK avoided recession last year by narrowest of margins. It might not be so lucky in 2023
The UK economy flatlined in the fourth quarter of 2022, meaning that it just managed to avoid falling into a recession.
Gross domestic product (GDP) had fallen 0.2% in the July-September period, and two consecutive quarters of contraction would have pushed the country into a recession. GDP for the December quarter showed zero growth.
For the whole of 2022, the economy grew by 4%, following an expansion of 7.6% in 2021. But the outlook for this year is much worse. According to the International Monetary Fund, the United Kingdom is likely to be the only major economy to contract this year.
The Bank of England last week forecast a 0.5% decline in UK economic output this year, broadly in line with the IMF’s outlook.
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